Objective: This study aims to identify and analyze plausible scenarios for the future of Farhangian University in the light of transformations in society-oriented higher education. The focus is on examining key drivers, critical uncertainties, and strategic implications of these scenarios for the university’s structure, mission, and social role.
Method: The research is applied in nature and employs a qualitative, futures-oriented approach. The scenario-building method of the Global Business Network (GBN) was used to explore possible futures. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts in higher education and teacher training, selected through purposive sampling. Thematic analysis was conducted using MAXQDA software to extract key themes and drivers. A cross-impact matrix of influence and dependence was employed using MicMac software to assess the influence of identified factors on the university's future.
Findings: Analysis revealed nine major driving forces categorized into external (macro-level) and internal (organizational-level) factors. Two critical uncertainties—“the level of governmental support and prioritization” and “the dominant approach to teacher education”—were identified as pivotal. These uncertainties formed the basis for alternative scenarios: (1) Transformation and Flourishing, (2) Quantitative Expansion without Qualitative Improvement, (3) Minimal Support and Independent Innovation, and (4) Decline and Withdrawal. The consequences of each scenario were examined across the university's structural, functional, and societal dimensions.
Conclusion: Findings indicate that maintaining the status quo without enhancing institutional resilience and foresight capabilities may lead to strategic regression. To move toward a preferred future, it is recommended that Farhangian University institutionalize futures thinking, enhance governance flexibility, modernize teacher education programs, strengthen faculty development, and adopt scenario-based policy strategies.